Good turnout for the first problem set in months.
What's your bidding plan?
1) What is happening here? Sounds like both partner
and RHO have distributional hands since I have all the
aces. The odds of partner's reopening with a double are
quite small, and partner might be tempted to pass it
out with a minimum, likely diamond void, and no aces
for defense. [He'd better not. He sees the vulnerability,
too, and knows I might be trapping. --Jeff] If partner
reopens with a suit, I am in a horrible situation.
[Why? Most of the time, partner will reopen with
either a double or
2) If partner does somehow double back in,
Having passed over
At this point, we know partner is likely 5-5-0-3 or (6-5-0-2).
Normally partner's auction implies a lack of defensive controls
when holding the first pattern, but we already knew that from
our hand. If partner has
As a side question, it is of some interest how the partnership
should proceed over 5NT showing no K outside of spades. Should
What I would like to do is agree hearts and start cue-bidding or
blackwooding. If I start with
I kind of like blackwooding immediately. I can't figure out if he's got a fifth heart, but I think I can find out enough to know if we should be in 6 or not.
Not much else is forcing, so that leaves the choice between
Blackwood and the GSF. I don't see how the former is going
to help much. Partner will show one with
Is there a way to find out about the
Probability of Missing Game = PMG Probability ofIf those are the right guesses, the choice is about half an IMP in favor of bidding. This, of course, is a simplification; bidding might lead to a game going down or to getting doubled in something and going for a number. Those seem like unlikely ocurrances, probably less than half an IMP's worth. It doesn't take lowering the game odds much to make passing a favorite. All told, I'd guess this is just about a break-even choice, with either action having about the same expectation.
3going down and 2making = P3CD Probability of 3going down and 2going down = P2CD E[x] for passing - E[x] for bidding = PMG * -11 + P3CD * 5 + P2CD * 3 Let's say game is 30%, 3goes down 50%, and 2goes down 10%. .3 * -11 + .5 * 5 + .1 * 3 = -.5 IMP
At matchpoints, passing is clear cut, I think. The chance of going minus by bidding is substantially larger than of missing game by passing. I don't see improving the strain's happening while staying in a part score, so that's the major tradeoff. That choice is easy. It's only IMPs where there is a problem.
a) what do you think of those methods?
b) what now?
B) Pass. I like the
Despite the panel's near-unanimity towards bidding, I
remain unconvinced. I think my partner should have passed
then, and I still think it now. The chance of my passing
The director was summoned after the
So let's say West bids 'only'
BTW, my mom agrees with the
Based on the information I have available, I would allow the
table result to stand. If I'd gone the other way, disallowing
I realize that
There are a lot of different ways the defense can go. Down 11 is the best and down 8 is the reasonable worst (give west a trump, don't untangle the diamonds, one club ruff.) One defensive error seems likely so rule it as down 10, N-S +2900.
The non-offenders get the best probable result. West's most likely bid is
There will also be a procedural penalty if I think West should know better.
First we assess a procedural penalty against EW for West's taking blatant advantage of the UI. 3 IMPs or 1VP should do it, not to accrue to NS.
Second we adjust the score using 12C2. For the non-offenders I judge
the most favorable result that was likely to be
For the offenders the most unfavorable result that was at all
An adjustment like this is by no means going overboard. It's the best way to make sure that West will learn and follow his ethical obligations.
[Nicely done. --Jeff]
Just for completeness, here's how to set up the problem:
What are West's real options over
Is this fair to N/S? After all, par for them is +1430.
Yes, it's fair. After the
The panel did a pretty good job, all in all, pretty much all working at the core of the matter. And just about all got different results. This stuff isn't so easy. Sometimes there isn't a "right" answer.
Assess the blame for reaching a slam off two aces. OK, maybe the "credit." +980 was scored.
Who ducked the
I think the partnership ran into some trouble when neither
partner found a convenient time to limit his hand. South's
bids constantly improved the North hand and the spade wastage
was hard to identify. I think that it was South's responsibility
to reel it in over
I see nothing wrong with North's auction (unless your partnership
strictly cuebids up the line, in which case North should bid
How did you avoid losing two tricks? Did they revoke?
Did someone revoke?
Upon reflection, some system description would have helped. It's been awhile.
* LHO's first pass was pregnant
[With the actual hand,] partner should save in front of you.
We should take two black tricks, the ace of trump, and a ruff. Would he have doubled with that? He might not have been confident of beating them.
Could he hold three trump and both red kings? That would be piggy of
him. Say he holds
I'm going to double and lead a diamond.
Dbl = 4-card major and a longer minor.
What's your plan?
If you pass, what's the minimum improvement
to the hand you'd need to bid
The second vote was pretty straightforward. Looks like current-day standard for jump responses to takeout doubles is roughly 8-11. There's some variation, but that's the nominal range, at least according to this panel.
* forcing (!)
a) Assign the blame between East and West.
b) What was the worst action?
West made a poor pass and a questionable
defensive play. East made a very questionable play. East made an odd double
that whould have worked out, given West's hand. East 20%, West 80%. If West
knows that East makes takeout doubles of a spade on any four hearts and any
11hcp, I really dislike the double of
As for the auction,The final double is a bit aggressive, but
I would think anyone who plays 1NT forcing over a takeout double
has trouble taking 8 tricks with only half the deck and only
7 trumps. I consider East's X of
That being said, I think
No, this hand was bid with equal hoplessness by both East and West. And they thought N/S's convention was bad!!
b) How many choices do I get? The double of
b) [First] Double it had the most to lose.
The play: You hold
No one mentioned this, but why on Earth did East
signal encouragement in clubs when he desperately
wanted a heart shift? It wasn't relevant, as West
ignored him anyway, but isn't it an error? Unless
he knew the entire hand, that isif West shifts
to his club instead of any heart, the hand is over.
East inserts the
Tough call. 70% of the bame is due to the defense. There were three key plays:
I refused to assign blame until after hearing the
panel's reaction. I think doubling
Anyway, my blame sums to 30-60, or 33-67, pretty close to what the panel thinks.
It's interesting that the panel is extremely polarized. Two give West 80+% of the blame; seven give East 80+% of the blame. Seems to me that there were enough errors that the blame should be closer to 50-50 than that.
a) Would you have bid
b) What now?
I don't think my defence is good enough to turn the cube. An overtrick is more likely than an undertrick, but I have negative defence in diamonds, so they likely have a cheap save. I'll take my 790 and get on with the game.
b) I would pass
Yes, partner was out in left field. I have no idea why
Frankly, I was pretty sure that passing in b) was 100% (and the unanimous panel agreed) but the bid on the previous round is very interesting. Not many commented. Oh, well.