In case anyone wants to know the odds of winning various attacks, but doesn't want to bother to work out all of the cases....
|Modifiers||2d vs 1d||2d vs 2d||3d vs 1d||3d vs 2d|
|att +1, att wins ties||0.861||0.776||0.923||0.870|
|att wins ties||0.745||0.610||0.826||0.719|
|def wins ties||0.579||0.390||0.660||0.472|
|def +1, def wins ties||0.417||0.224||0.494||0.279|
So, to answer the question: ``should I build a fort or put two guys down?''
Normal terrain: .497 vs .482 (in favor of guys)
Difficult terr: .268 vs .250 (in favor of fort)
Sounds like a fort, though it's mostly a wash. The numbers are within a percent or two. What's really important, on the other hand, is which is the better deterrent. It's very clear that it's a fort a) from experience (some players never know that there are two guys there) and b) the way we stack things makes it hard to see who owns the fort. If you are doing well, it's a good way to hide guys and if you aren't, it doesn't matter anyway. On the other hand, you might miss your own fort while counting VPs. Of course, if you have Empires Fortify or Empire Revives or such, or expect a retreat into the land, that ought to make the difference. If a monument is there, guys are definitely better, since a fort and a monument (and a capital) is asking for Disaster.